Rising Sea Levels Expected to Cost Venice Half a Billion Dollars by 2100, Economists Say

With its wide swath of sand and additional attractions, Venice Beach won't be as hard hit economically by rising sea levels as some other beach areas, economists said in a report released Tuesday. However, the community is still predicted to lose out on about $439.6 million in tourism and incur $51.6 million in property damage through 2100, the study found.

In fact, the $51.6 million—the report's estimate of the financial cost in property damage from a 100-year coastal flood—is probably a low assessment of what the total actual cost to the community would be, Philip King, an associate professor of economics at San Francisco State University and the study's lead author, told Patch.

"We looked at coastal flooding, but if there's a flood and that leads to loss of tourism, I don't think we factored that in," King said.

The size of Venice Beach is expected to be reduced by 16 percent in the next 90 years, causing an additional $38.6 million in habitat and recreation losses, according to the study, which was commissioned by the California Department of Boating and Waterways.

The study was intended to bring people's attention to the myriad effects of a rising sea level, King said. "The state of California and local communities need to figure out how to respond," he said.

Seawalls, beach nourishment and allowing the coastline to recede are all options for coastal communities.

For Venice, King said that no immediate changes were called for and that seawalls were not a good solution. Instead, "50 years from now or 20 years from now, they may need to consider more beach nourishment," he said.

The study used data that project that sea level will rise 4.6 feet in the next 90 years, King said. "We used the best available information from the scientific community," he said.

The study also looked at Zuma and Broad beaches in Malibu, Carpinteria City and State Beach in Santa Barbara County, Torrey Pines City and State Beach in San Diego County and Ocean Beach (north of Sloat Boulevard) in San Francisco County. 

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